Equity Price Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro

Daily data from the German and U.S. equity markets before and after the introduction of the Euro are used to study the effect of exchange rate regime choices on equity markets. It is found that, since the introduction of the Euro, the volatility and the persistence of the German stock index have fallen significantly relative to those of the U.S. index. However, the switch in exchange rate arrangement appears to have no significant implication for the causal relationships - both the mean and varianc causalities - between the two equity markets

Output Dynamics of the G7 Countries - Stochastic Trends and Cyclical Movements

Using a time series framework, the paper studies the interac tions of the annual real per capita GDP data of the G7 countries. We find evidence of six common nonstationary processes behind the international output dynamics. In addition, there is evidence for the existence of a common business cycle among these coun t ries. The trend and cycle components of each output series are obtained with a procedure that accounts for the presence of both the common nonstationary and cyclical factors. It is found that the relative variability and the correlation of the trend and cycle components are not similar across the G7 countries.

Equity Price Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro: A Note

Daily data from the German and U.S. equity markets before and after the introduction of the Euro are used to study the effect of exchange rate regime choices on equity markets. It is found that, since the introduction of the Euro, the volatility and the persistence of the German stock index have fallen significantly relative to those of the U.S. index. However, the switch in exchange rate arrangement appears to have no significant implication for the causal relationships – both the mean and variance causalities – between the two equity markets.

Equity Price Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro

Daily data from the German and U.S. equity markets before and after the introduction of the Euro are used to study the effect of exchange rate regime choices on equity markets. It is found that, since the introduction of the Euro, the volatility and the persistence of the German stock index have fallen significantly relative to those of the U.S. index. However, the switch in exchange rate arrangement appears to have no significant implication for the causal relationships - both the mean and varianc causalities - between the two equity markets.

Sectoral Trends and Cycles in Germany

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture) and the three corresponding sectoral stock market indexes. It is found that data with and without seasonal adjustment give mixed results on the long-run interaction between the sectoral indexes. Compared with data that are non-seasonally adjusted, the adjusted data offer a weaker evidence on the cointegration relationship between a) the sectoral output indexes, b) sectoral stock indexes, and c) individual pairs of real and financial indexes. On short-run comovement, seasonally adjusted data offer stronger evidence on the presence of common synchronized and non-synchronized cyclical components.

Relay-proof channels using UWB lasers

Alice is a hand-held device. Bob is a device providing a service, such as an ATM, an automatic door, or an anti-aircraft gun pointing at the gyro-copter in which Alice is travelling. Bob and Alice have never met, but share a key, which Alice uses to request a service from Bob (dispense cash, open door, don't shoot). Mort pretends to Bob that she is Alice, and her accomplice Cove pretends to Alice that he is Bob. Mort and Cove relay the appropriate challenges and responses to one another over a channel hidden from Alice and Bob. Meanwhile Alice waits impatiently in front of a different ATM, or the wrong door, or another gun. How can such an attack be prevented?Final Accepted Versio

On utility-based super-replication prices of contingent claims with unbounded payoffs

Consider a financial market in which an agent trades with utility-induced restrictions on wealth. For a utility function which satisfies the condition of reasonable asymptotic elasticity at $-\infty$ we prove that the utility-based super-replication price of an unbounded (but sufficiently integrable) contingent claim is equal to the supremum of its discounted expectations under pricing measures with finite {\it loss-entropy}. For an agent whose utility function is unbounded from above, the set of pricing measures with finite loss-entropy can be slightly larger than the set of pricing measures with finite entropy. Indeed, the former set is the closure of the latter under a suitable weak topology. Central to our proof is the representation of a cone $C_U$ of utility-based super-replicable contingent claims as the polar cone to the set of finite loss-entropy pricing measures. The cone $C_U$ is defined as the closure, under a relevant weak topology, of the cone of all (sufficiently integrable) contingent claims that can be dominated by a zero-financed terminal wealth. We investigate also the natural dual of this result and show that the polar cone to $C_U$ is generated by those separating measures with finite loss-entropy. The full two-sided polarity we achieve between measures and contingent claims yields an economic justification for the use of the cone $C_U$, and an open question

Optimal designs for active controlled dose finding trials with efficacy-toxicity outcomes

Nonlinear regression models addressing both efficacy and toxicity outcomes are increasingly used in dose-finding trials, such as in pharmaceutical drug development. However, research on related experimental design problems for corresponding active controlled trials is still scarce. In this paper we derive optimal designs to estimate efficacy and toxicity in an active controlled clinical dose finding trial when the bivariate continuous outcomes are modeled either by polynomials up to degree 2, the Michaelis- Menten model, the Emax model, or a combination thereof. We determine upper bounds on the number of different doses levels required for the optimal design and provide conditions under which the boundary points of the design space are included in the optimal design. We also provide an analytical description of the minimally supported $D$-optimal designs and show that they do not depend on the correlation between the bivariate outcomes. We illustrate the proposed methods with numerical examples and demonstrate the advantages of the $D$-optimal design for a trial, which has recently been considered in the literature.Comment: Keywords and Phrases: Active controlled trials, dose finding, optimal design, admissible design, Emax model, Equivalence theorem, Particle swarm optimization, Tchebycheff syste